Pat Cummins admits he is “less likely than likely” to lead Australia in the opening Ashes Test in Perth on 21 November. The captain only started light running this week after a lumbar bone-stress injury ruled him out of all bowling since the Caribbean tour in July.
Speaking at a broadcaster’s season launch in Sydney, Cummins was frank about the calendar now staring him down. “I’d say probably less likely than likely,” he said, before adding, “But we’ve still got a bit of time.”
Key timeline
• Early September: lumbar stress issue diagnosed
• This week: first jogging sessions, every second day
• Next week: basic bowling drills planned
• 21 November: first Test v England in Perth
He outlined the simple mathematics that may keep him on the sidelines. “You’d want probably at least a month in the nets,” Cummins explained. “If you are to play in a Test match, you want to make sure you are right to bowl 20 overs in a day and you don’t have to think about it. Four weeks is pretty tight, but I think somewhere around that mark.”
The fast bowler said each gentle run is followed by a short assessment period. “I’m running today and running kind of every second day, and each runs a little bit longer, and then we get into bowling prep next week. So I’m probably a couple of weeks away before actually putting on the spikes and bowling out on the turf. But it’s been a good couple of weeks. Each session feels better and better.”
Frustration mixed with realism
The 32-year-old conceded the timing hurts. “Some days I’m kind of annoyed because it’s the Ashes, and it’s a big summer and then other days I’m kind of realistic. I’ve had the last seven or eight years of almost uninterrupted home summers, so I felt like I’ve had a really good run as a fast bowler. Someone like Josh [Hazlewood], he’s been a little bit more unlucky, so maybe it’s my turn.”
Right now the back remains “kind of a little bit stiff, just probably a little bit from the injury but then also because it hasn’t been used for a while,” he said. Yet the progress is encouraging. “Each session you do a little bit of run and make sure you pull up alright. So I’m actually feeling really good at the moment. A few of the symptoms hung around for a little bit longer than I would have liked but they’re all gone now. I’m just trying to kind of increase the workload and make sure body’s responding.”
Transition plan
The conditioning staff have shifted him from pure rehabilitation to movement patterns that mimic the stresses of bowling. “Some of the gym work becomes a bit more bowling prep work,” Cummins noted. “So you do a lot more kind of getting your muscles ready, side holds to try to simulate that. Maybe some med ball work, but trying to kind of transition before you actually go into the nets and start bowling.”
Selection implications
Head coach Andrew McDonald indicated last week that a final decision on Cummins’ inclusion would come early next month, giving selectors time to settle on back-up pace options. Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc and Scott Boland are certainties in the wider squad, while Western Australia quick Lance Morris has been monitored after his own side strain.
If Cummins misses Perth, vice-captain Steve Smith is the likely stand-in leader. Australia may then have to weigh the value of an extra fast bowler against the control of a second spinner, though conditions at Optus Stadium generally favour pace. Former Test opener Chris Rogers, speaking on SEN Radio, said the bigger issue is overs management. “Without Cummins you’ve lost 20 tight overs a day. Someone has to pick those up and keep the scoring rate in check.”
No shortcuts
The skipper, however, will not rush. “You’d want probably at least a month in the nets,” he repeated, making clear there is no appetite for a half-fit return. Australia’s medical staff are equally cautious, conscious of the short turnaround to the Boxing Day Test and subsequent tour of India.
Assessment
In pure numbers, Cummins has delivered 12,100 balls in Test cricket and has rarely been sidelined during an Australian summer. Even so, back stress injuries are notorious for relapse if workloads spike too quickly. A conservative call now could spare Australia larger headaches later in the series.
For the moment, the captain runs, rests and repeats, still harbouring faint hope of fronting up in Perth but resigned to the fact the clock is winning.
