Royal Challengers Bengaluru may have sealed a play-off berth with a match in hand, yet the Women’s Premier League table is anything but settled. Three fixtures remain, and the last two places are likely to come from Gujarat Giants, Mumbai Indians or Delhi Capitals. UP Warriorz still have a slim path, though their shaky net run-rate makes life awkward.
Here are the permutations, followed by a brief look at what the coaches and players are saying.
Royal Challengers Bengaluru – 10 points, NRR +0.947
Remaining match: v UPW (29 Jan)
Five straight wins put RCB in charge early; two defeats since have only trimmed the margin. Richa Ghosh’s brisk 90 in the loss to Mumbai meant the damage to run-rate was limited. Gujarat could, in theory, catch them on points, but the swing required is close to 160 runs. Head coach Luke Williams noted, “Finishing first matters—we’d rather go straight to the final than risk the eliminator.” Unless UPW hand out a thrashing of record proportions, RCB will stay top.
Gujarat Giants – 8 points, NRR -0.271
Remaining match: v MI (30 Jan)
Second place looks healthy, but nothing is locked in. A win of any size secures play-offs; a massive one, coupled with an RCB stumble, could even send them straight to the final. Lose narrowly and their fate depends on UPW’s previous result. Giants’ captain Beth Mooney kept it simple: “Beat Mumbai, and the sums take care of themselves.” They currently trail Delhi’s net run-rate by only 15 runs and lead UPW by roughly 55.
Mumbai Indians – 6 points, NRR +0.146
Remaining match: v GG (30 Jan)
The defending champions bring an 8-0 record against Gujarat into a genuine must-win. Two points fire Mumbai into the eliminator regardless of other scores. Bowling coach Shane Bond said, “We’ve spoken all week about holding our nerve in tight moments—that’s basically the brief.” If they lose, they need RCB to beat UPW and then hope Delhi slip on the final day. A cushion of more than 110 runs over UPW on net run-rate gives them breathing space in that particular scenario.
Delhi Capitals – 6 points, NRR -0.164
Remaining match: v UPW (1 Feb)
Sunday’s fixture is effectively a knockout. Victory puts Meg Lanning’s side through, full stop. Defeat could still see them sneak in, but only via a three-way tie on six points with MI and UPW—and even then they would need results and margins elsewhere to conspire in their favour. Assistant coach Lisa Keightley said, “We’d prefer not to rely on calculators—just win and go through.”
UP Warriorz – 4 points, NRR -0.445
Remaining matches: v RCB (29 Jan), v DC (1 Feb)
Mathematically alive, practically stretched. The Warriorz must beat both RCB and DC, and beat them well. Their run-rate is currently the worst in the league, so scraping home will not do. Skipper Alyssa Healy admitted, “We’re not hiding from the numbers—we need two big ones.” Should they achieve that, eight points could yet leapfrog them over Giants or Indians, but only with a hefty net-run-rate swing.
Key numbers to watch
• Net run-rate: Explained simply, it is the average runs scored per over minus the average runs conceded. A 20-run win in a low-scoring game can be more valuable than a 40-run win in a high-scorer.
• Head-to-head record plays no part once net run-rate is in the mix.
• RCB’s current buffer is worth around 160 runs over Gujarat, 190 over Mumbai.
What might happen
Scenario 1 – Giants beat Indians, Warriorz upset RCB
Giants finish top, RCB second, eliminator between MI (if their net run-rate survives) and either DC or UPW.
Scenario 2 – Indians beat Giants, Capitals beat Warriorz
RCB first, MI second, eliminator: GG v DC.
Scenario 3 – Indians lose heavily, Warriorz beat RCB but fall to Capitals
Three-way tie on six points; run-rate decider between MI, UPW and DC. On current figures, Capitals would sneak third.
The final round starts on Thursday evening in Bengaluru. Expect the calculators, and a few nervous glances, to remain close at hand until Sunday night.
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