Kagiso Rabada does not do popular opinion. While most previews of the 2026 T20 World Cup have India pencilled in as champions-in-waiting, the South Africa quick reckons nobody has pulled ahead – and that bowlers could yet have their say.
“You cannot say that there’s a favourite in this tournament. I think it’s up for grabs. Anyone can take it. We’ll be putting our hand up for that for sure. I’m not too sure what’s going on in the Indian camp. This tournament is right open,” he told reporters in Ahmedabad, the city that stages South Africa’s three group matches.
Those comments rounded off a wide-ranging chat that began with a question about surfaces. Domestic white-ball totals in India have climbed so steeply that the pre-tournament parlour game involves guessing who breaks 300 first. Rabada was happy to douse the hype.
“It’s India, there are small grounds, the ball skids on and when dew comes, it makes it even worse. But in ICC events, from what I’ve seen, not all games will be high scoring. You’ll get venues that will be high scoring from time to time, but I don’t think all pitches would be that way,” he said, before adding: “Especially in ICC events, you’ll see that there will be something for the bowlers every now and then.”
Historical evidence offers mixed comfort. The 2023 ODI World Cup, staged two months later in the calendar, produced three totals over 400 – one of them South Africa’s own. Yet quick bowlers occasionally prospered thanks to early-evening grip and a slightly larger boundary set-up than is usual for IPL fixtures.
Ahmedabad, Rabada’s base for the next fortnight, has leaned towards bat over ball. Eight men’s T20Is here have yielded an average first-innings score of 189; strip that down to the most recent four and the number balloons to 230. Nevertheless, 75% of wickets have fallen to pace and that stat underpins South Africa’s selection.
The squad contains six seamers: Rabada himself, the towering left-armer Marco Jansen, all-rounder Corbin Bosch, Lungi Ngidi, teenage prospect Kwena Maphaka and the fit-again Anrich Nortje. All turned their arm over in Monday’s warm-up defeat to India, leaving coach Rob Walter with a pleasant – if fiddly – selection headache.
Pace-heavy may sound predictable, yet Markram’s men have little choice. Keshav Maharaj is the lone specialist spinner and the management view the larger overall boundary sizes in Ahmedabad and Delhi, South Africa’s other group venue, as licence to keep attacking with quicks.
Balancing the XI
Picking four seamers plus Jansen would shorten the batting, an area already minus the retired Quinton de Kock. Tristan Stubbs, sharing wicket-keeping duties with Heinrich Klaasen, must therefore nail the middle-order brief. Assistant coach JP Duminy suggested earlier in the week that “six bowling options and depth at seven” is the preferred model, hinting at Bosch or Jansen playing a mini-all-rounder role.
India watch
India roll in with nine straight T20I series wins since lifting the trophy in 2024 and home crowds hungry for a men’s ICC title on local soil – something that eluded them in ODI World Cups of 2011-23 vintage. The batting card looks lavish, spearheaded by Suryakumar Yadav and the resurgent Rohit Sharma. Yet swing bowler Bhuvneshwar Kumar’s injury has reopened debate over death-overs clarity. Rabada, ever the diplomat, politely declined to diagnose the supposed weakness, preferring to “focus on what we can control”.
The bigger picture
Tournament organisers have stressed that pitches will vary more than the stereotype suggests, with colder evenings expected in Dharamsala and Lucknow. Whether that translates to sideways movement or just less spin remains to be seen; either way, Rabada’s view is simple – no side walks in with an unassailable edge.
South Africa’s first assignment is against Sri Lanka on Saturday night. Two points there, and the “wide-open” theory gathers momentum; stumble, and the clamour around India will only grow louder. One way or another, we will discover soon enough how scenic Rabada’s chosen route really is.
