Pat Cummins faces an awkward build-up to the home Ashes after scans picked up “lumbar bone stress” in his lower back. Cricket Australia (CA) have already ruled the captain out of October’s limited-overs trips to New Zealand and India, meaning he may reach the first Test in Perth on 21 November without a single competitive spell since July.
The issue surfaced after the Caribbean Tests, where Cummins’ workload was lighter than usual. He then skipped the West Indies and South Africa T20Is as part of a pre-planned rest, a ten-week conditioning block similar to last year’s. Despite that break, the back soreness hung around, prompting Monday’s precautionary scan and the subsequent diagnosis. Crucially, no fracture has been detected, but the medical staff will tread carefully; stress reactions can turn into full breaks if unmanaged.
Cummins knows the territory. Persistent stress fractures restricted him to one Test between his 2011 debut and the 2017 tour of India. Since that comeback he has been remarkably dependable—400-plus overs in each of the past three seasons—yet 2025 looks very different. Across all formats he has delivered only 175.1 overs, 95.1 of those coming in four mid-year Tests against South Africa and West Indies. Even with a possible Sheffield Shield hit-out and the early Ashes fixtures, he is unlikely to approach his usual yearly volume.
CA spelled out the next steps. “Cummins was rested from recent T20 series against the West Indies and South Africa. Despite this planned de-load period, Cummins has experienced some ongoing lower back pain following the West Indies Test tour,” the statement read. “Further investigation has identified a level of lumbar bone stress that will require further management over the coming months. Cummins won’t be considered for the upcoming limited-overs series against India and will continue his rehabilitation plan with a return to bowling to be determined as part of his Ashes preparation.”
Bowling coach Daniel Vettori struck a pragmatic note on Tuesday. “We would have loved Pat bowling in New Zealand, but preserving him for five Tests against England is the obvious priority,” he said. Sports physiotherapist Kate Mahony, who is not involved with the team, added a cautionary outsider’s view: “Bone stress can settle quickly if you get the loading right, but it’s tricky in fast bowlers because their spikes hit the crease with several times body-weight.”
From a selection angle, Australia have options. Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood are expected to lead the ODI attack, while Lance Morris and Nathan Ellis should gain valuable overs. A white-ball recall for Jhye Richardson is also on the table. The staff will monitor whether Cummins needs a Shield match or an in-house practice game before the Ashes opener.
For now, the equation is simple enough: the skipper must get through his rehab, build up gradually, and arrive in Perth ready to take the new ball. Anything less would leave Australia short of their figurehead when the urn is on the line.
