Pat Cummins will learn by next Friday whether his back will let him take the new ball in the first Ashes Test in Perth, with Australia coach Andrew McDonald conceding that time is almost up, though the captain is still tipped to feature at some stage in the series.
Cummins, 32, underwent a follow-up scan earlier this week on the lumbar bone stress issue that flared late last season. According to McDonald, the pictures “looked better”, opening the door for some light additions to a programme that has been limited mainly to lower-leg strength work.
“We still aren’t further advanced on whether he’ll play the first Test,” McDonald told reporters on Friday. “We are definitely running out of time around that. He’s added some variables into his training. I think by this time next week, we’ll be in a position where we’re better informed to make a judgment around what that first Test match looks like.”
Those “variables” are coach-speak for bowling. Cummins has not let the ball go in anger for more than a month and the opening Test is only six weeks away (21 November). Fast bowlers normally want eight-plus weeks of build-up, but McDonald believes his skipper can cope with less, up to a point.
“He’s had a positive week, and so we’ll just wait for that information to come in. Anyone that knows the nature of those injuries, you do add the variables in and it’s about how you recover from adding the variables into your training. It’s not as quick as everyone thinks it is. We look forward to a positive outcome next Friday and then making some decisions around what it looks like for the first Test match.”
McDonald laid out the balancing act bluntly. “The biggest variable that we need to add in is bowling and if you looked at a reasonable time frame for Patty to get ready, we feel as though he can do a shortened preparation, unlike other bowlers that probably need a longer prep. But even if we were to shrink that prep down, we’d start to take on some risk around soft tissue [injuries], some skill readiness as well, making sure he’s prepared to do the job there.”
The staff will decide next week whether to risk that compressed build-up. If the answer is no, Cummins could sit out Perth while eyeing the Boxing Day or even Sydney Tests; five Ashes matches inside seven weeks rarely allow every quick to play all five anyway.
“I haven’t really delved into what it looks like without him for five Test matches because the information and the week that he’s had would suggest he’s going to play some part as it sits right now,” McDonald said.
He did, however, admit that nothing is guaranteed. “Can that change with new information when we start to add some more variables into his training? Could that go backwards? There is a possibility of that. And for those who have had lumbar bone stress, they would understand that it’s a journey to add those variables in, how you pull up, recover, and that can ebb and flow a little bit across the rehab. So we’ll just see how it plays out. At this stage there’s no thinking that he will be ruled out for the whole series.”
Should Cummins miss Perth, selectors have Josh Hazlewood, Mitchell Starc, Scott Boland and Michael Neser on hand, with Lance Morris still pushing his pace in the domestic Shield. None, however, offers Cummins’ combination of control, bounce and leadership.
For now, Australia wait. One more scan, one more update, then a call that could shape the early tone of the Ashes summer.
