Australia have finally conceded what most observers expected: Pat Cummins will not be fit for next week’s first Test against England. A lingering lumbar-stress injury means the captain will stay on the sidelines until at least Brisbane on 4 December, when he is due to resume bowling.
Head coach Andrew McDonald and selection chair George Bailey remain upbeat. They insist Cummins “will play a major part in the series”, though the man himself has sounded more cautious over the past month, repeatedly warning that his recovery “has no set timeline”.
So, where does that leave Australia for Perth?
Scott Boland will almost certainly take the new ball, with Steven Smith resuming the captaincy. Boland’s record is eye-catching – 35 Test wickets at 17 – yet several English pundits have already declared that an attack minus Cummins is “the worst Australian team since 2010”. The numbers disagree. Since Cummins became captain in 2021, Australia have played six Tests without him, winning five and drawing one. That run includes the 2021-22 Adelaide Ashes victory achieved without either Cummins or Josh Hazlewood.
Form, too, is hard to criticise. Australia have won eight of their past ten Tests, their only defeat coming in the World Test Championship final. Three of those wins were at home against an India side that recently shared a gripping 2-2 series with England.
None of this means England should be overawed. Perth has been the friendliest Australian surface for overseas batters since the groundsmen started leaving more grass on other pitches four years ago. Only five touring players have made hundreds in that period, and three came in Perth – most recently Yashasvi Jaiswal and Virat Kohli. Kohli’s ton stands out: away from Perth he scraped 7, 11, 3, 36, 5, 17 and 6 before retiring from Test cricket.
Harry Brook is wary yet optimistic. “Hopefully that plays into our hands… [But] we can’t take anybody lightly,” he said during England’s warm-up. The visitors know a fast, true wicket is central to their attacking blueprint; remove Cummins and the new-ball glare loses some sharpness.
Statistically, Perth is also Cummins’ least prolific Australian venue. Across five Tests he averages 26.33 and has never taken more than three wickets in an innings. Elsewhere at home his average dips below 22 and he owns at least one five-for at every other Ashes ground. Yet anyone who has watched Australia defend totals on a flattening pitch appreciates how Cummins’ relentless accuracy keeps opposing batters honest.
That is the hole Australia must fill. Boland offers nagging seam, while Mitchell Starc and Hazlewood provide pace and bounce, but none can quite replicate Cummins’ late-spell menace. Starc, for one, backs the unit. Earlier this week he pointed to Australia’s “fast-bowling depth” and praised Boland’s ability to “hit that hard length all day”.
From England’s perspective the bigger question is whether they can cash in once the Kookaburra softens. The surface traditionally flattens on days two and three, and no Australian ground goes flatter. Ben Stokes’ side embraced aggression in India; repeating that here could force Smith to juggle his bowlers earlier than planned.
The psychological aspect is worth a nod. Cummins is leader of the team as well as the attack. Smith has done the job before and owns a strong record – three wins in four as stand-in – yet Cummins’ calm authority has underpinned much of Australia’s recent success. Losing that presence, even briefly, tests the group.
None of this guarantees an English advantage. Australia rarely lose at home, even without their captain. But for England it removes one of the game’s great fast bowlers, a man with 309 Test wickets at 22.10 and ranked No. 4 globally. An opening blows to confidence, perhaps, but also an opening.
As ever in Test cricket, the first morning will reveal more than any preview. If Boland settles immediately and Starc finds his swing, Cummins’ absence may fade into the West Australian heat. Should England ride the bounce and post a dominant first-innings total, we will talk about the captain’s missing overs all week.
Either way, Perth promises a fascinating start to the series – with or without its most familiar enforcer.
