Pat Cummins will spend the next two months on the sidelines after scans confirmed mild bone stress in his lower back, yet Australia’s captain is already thinking about the first Ashes Test in Perth on 21 November.
The setback rules him out of the forthcoming white-ball tours of New Zealand and India. Chair of selectors George Bailey said this week he “expects Cummins to be fit for the first Ashes Test”, though the medical staff have deliberately avoided firm guarantees.
Speaking in Brisbane on Wednesday, Cummins made it clear he is prepared to push the envelope if it keeps him involved. “That would be devastating, so we’ll be doing everything we can to try to be right for that and try to make a few decisions a little bit closer, but confident,” he said. “Do the rehab right and give it a good crack. It’s a big Ashes series. It doesn’t get much bigger, so I think you’re willing to take a few risks and be a little bit aggressive to try and play as much Test [cricket] as you can.”
The 31-year-old fast bowler felt soreness after Australia’s 3-0 sweep of West Indies in July, a series in which he delivered just 60 overs. A month of rest followed, then another scan on Monday. “It doesn’t feel too bad, but I’m obviously not bowling or doing too much at the moment,” he explained. “With bone injuries, you really just want to settle it down. I’m still doing a bit of gym, but no real running, no bowling. Get that right and then we’ll build up to the summer. We’ve got loads of time, there’s about 12 weeks until the first Test.”
In practical terms, Australia will start the Ashes build-up without their skipper, their spearhead and one of their more experienced lower-order run-scorers. The selectors have enough recent evidence to feel calm; rotation and squad depth have become a norm since the pandemic season. Scott Boland is the obvious like-for-like bowling replacement after claiming a hat-trick against West Indies, while vice-captain Travis Head would lead if Cummins fails to make it.
“We always talk about we need a lot of depth,” Cummins noted. “We’ve been lucky in the last couple of years. We kind of haven’t had to go past the four guys really, but guys like Sean Abbott… Doggy [Brendan Doggett], there’s about four or five guys. Ness [Michael Neser] has obviously been around, Jhye Richardson. There’s guys who have been in and around the Test team over the last few years and haven’t had too many opportunities, but we know they’re going to be good enough if they’re needed.”
While anxious fans will focus on the calendar, Cummins sounded relaxed about skipping Sheffield Shield cricket before the Ashes. “At this stage of my career I feel like I can probably get up to speed a bit quicker than when I was 18 or 19,” he said. “Back then you probably feel like you need to play a few Shield games or one-dayers. I’m pretty confident even if I don’t get a chance to play a Shield game, I’ll can get up to speed.”
From a medical standpoint, lumbar stress injuries demand caution. Fast bowlers generate more than eight times their body weight through the back at the point of delivery; a premature return risks a complete fracture. The physiotherapists will therefore track bone density, bowling loads and simple day-to-day discomfort before signing him off.
Yet the Ashes rarely waits for anyone, and Cummins knows it. Australia have not lost a home series to England since 2010-11, and the captain is keen to preserve that record. Between now and mid-November his programme will be a familiar cycle: rest, core stability work, light bowling, heavier spells, match-day preparation. If one step is missed, the risk goes up; if all goes smoothly, the Perth Test remains realistic.
For now, the numbers are straightforward: roughly 12 weeks to heal, four to ramp up, and maybe half a dozen spells in the nets before an England batting order walks out at Optus Stadium. Cummins is banking on that timeline. And as long as the pain stays at bay, the gamble makes sense.
