Pat Cummins is running out of time to prove his fitness for the opening Ashes Test in Perth, with Cricket Australia (CA) medics yet to give him the green light to bowl. The series starts on 21 November – a little more than six weeks away – and Cummins remains restricted to rehabilitation work after another scan on his lower-back stress injury showed only modest progress.
CA have offered no formal update, but team sources confirmed on Wednesday that no return-to-bowling date has been pencilled in. In practical terms, that means Cummins is unlikely to play any lead-up matches, sharpening fears that Australia’s captain may miss at least the first Test – and perhaps more.
“We’re willing to take a few risks and be a little bit aggressive,” Cummins said when the setback was first revealed in early September, adding that the Ashes would take precedence over any warm-up fixtures. Yet the time he has left to build up bowling loads – usually a four-to-six-week process on its own – looks increasingly tight, even for a fast bowler prepared to push the envelope.
WHAT THE SCANS SHOW
According to reports in News Corp and Nine publications, the lumbar stress reaction has improved, but not sufficiently for Cummins to resume the twisting, rotational work needed for fast bowling. Until he can do that – and then gradually increase overs in the nets – CA’s medical staff will not sanction a competitive return.
Coach Andrew McDonald offered a note of caution last month: “We won’t rush Pat back. Our duty is to both the player and the team over the long haul.” That approach leaves selectors planning for multiple scenarios, including a first-Test attack without their skipper.
IMPACT ON THE REST OF THE ATTACK
If Cummins is unavailable, Australia would almost certainly start with Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Scott Boland at Perth, with Cameron Green providing support. Eight-day gaps separate each of the first two Tests (Perth to Brisbane, then Brisbane to Adelaide), so the trio could, in theory, cover Cummins’ absence through to mid-December without a rest.
But the back end of the series is more congested. Adelaide ends four days before Boxing Day at the MCG, and the Sydney Test follows just four more days later. Recent history suggests reinforcements may be vital. In England in 2023, Mark Wood and Chris Woakes dominated the last three Tests for the hosts after sitting out the first two, simply because they were fresher. Conversely, India’s Jasprit Bumrah broke down in Sydney after shouldering a huge workload across five back-to-back Tests the previous summer.
RISK OF SECONDARY INJURIES
Cummins has continued his leg-strength and core programmes, but the longer he is kept from bowling, the greater the risk of soft-tissue problems when he finally does let rip. He has managed ankle, calf and abdominal niggles in the past, always on carefully planned build-ups. Last year he skipped Australia’s limited-overs tour of the UK for a ten-week conditioning block before the Border-Gavaskar series, yet even then squeezed in only one 50-over game for New South Wales and two ODIs for Australia before facing India.
POSSIBLE TIMELINES
• First Test, Perth – 21 November (six weeks away)
• Second Test, Brisbane – 4 December
• Third Test, Adelaide – 17 December (ten weeks)
• Fourth Test, Melbourne – 26 December
• Fifth Test, Sydney – 3 January
Given those dates, some at CA believe a realistic return could be Adelaide, which would still allow Cummins to play three home-Ashes Tests. That would require him to start bowling again inside a fortnight.
Former Test quick Ryan Harris told SEN radio, “If Pat’s not bowling by the end of October, I just can’t see him playing in Perth. It’s too big an ask, and you don’t want him breaking down mid-series.”
SELECTION CALLS LOOM
National selector George Bailey has insisted Australia will not hesitate to draft extra pace cover if Cummins is ruled out later this month. Lance Morris, Spencer Johnson and Will Sutherland are all being monitored through the Sheffield Shield, while Michael Neser’s combination of experience and swing makes him hard to ignore for Brisbane.
For now, though, all eyes remain on Cummins’ rehab gym in Sydney’s Olympic Park. The Ashes rarely allow much room for guesswork, yet six weeks out, everyone – including the captain – is still guessing.
