Pat Cummins has been ruled out of the first Ashes Test in Perth after failing to recover in time from the lumbar stress injury he picked up in September. Cricket Australia confirmed on Monday that the captain “expects to return to bowling shortly,” but not soon enough for the series opener on 21 November.
Steven Smith will lead Australia in Cummins’ absence, as he did successfully in Adelaide during the 2021-22 Ashes when Covid protocols sidelined the quick. The second Test, starting in Brisbane on 4 December, remains a race against the clock, though selectors are refusing to draw a firm line through Cummins’ name just yet.
The injury surfaced after the tour of the West Indies, and has kept the 30-year-old from any meaningful bowling since. He has resumed running, but the step-up to full-pace spells proved a hurdle too far. “A couple of weeks ago I knew it would be tight for the first Test,” Cummins admitted earlier this month, and the call made today reflects that reality.
Smith’s stand-in record is strong—five wins from six matches—and his measured response summed up the squad mood. “We’ve done this before,” he noted on the weekend. “The plan doesn’t really change; we just need someone else to fill Pat’s overs.”
That someone is almost certain to be Scott Boland, fresh from a hat-trick in the West Indies. The Victorian seamer has built a reputation for nagging accuracy and handy lower-order runs, qualities that shape nicely for the fast, bouncy Perth surface.
Cummins’ durability since the back troubles that cost him five-and-a-half years between his first and second Tests has been remarkable, so this setback stings. Still, the medical staff are treating the current issue as precautionary rather than career-threatening. Former Australia physiotherapist Alex Kountouris explained the approach on ABC radio: “Stress injuries can flare if you rush. Two extra weeks now can save months later.”
England, meanwhile, will not be celebrating too loudly. Ben Stokes has spoken often about planning for all scenarios and knows how quickly conditions in Australia can make or break a bowling unit. Privately, though, they will recognise the edge that comes from not having to face Cummins’ new-ball spells.
Australia’s squad for the opener will be named after this week’s Sheffield Shield round, with Cummins expected to travel as a non-playing captain. Head coach Andrew McDonald speaks to the press in Canberra later today and will outline bowling contingencies in more detail.
The Ashes rarely hinge on one player, but Cummins’ enforced absence does tilt the scales, at least early on. For now, Australia trust the depth that has served them well; England sense an opening they must grasp.
