India’s 2-0 defeat at home to South Africa has left Rohit Sharma’s men with a sizeable repair job in the second half of the 2025-27 World Test Championship (WTC) cycle.
Where things stand
• Played 9 of 18 Tests
• Points percentage: 48.15 (5th place)
• Leaders: Australia 100%, South Africa 75%
Australia and South Africa have set a brisk early pace, while New Zealand are yet to begin and Pakistan, Sri Lanka and England have only dipped a toe in. Even so, recent history suggests that anything below 60-65% will probably miss the final. In the previous cycle India sneaked in on 58.8%, but that relied on rivals tripping up.
So, what is required?
The maths is straightforward, the cricket less so. India can still harvest 216 points in total; 130 points (roughly 60%) ought to give them a fighting chance. They currently sit on 52, which leaves 78 needed from nine Tests. Two reasonably tidy scenarios are:
• Six wins and two draws (6×12 + 2×4 = 80)
• Seven wins, no fuss (7×12 = 84)
Neither allows much slack for bad days or slow over-rates.
The run-in
August 2026: two Tests in Sri Lanka
Oct-Nov 2026: two Tests in New Zealand
Early 2027: five home Tests v Australia
Sri Lanka has been friendly turf of late. India have won five of their past six Tests there, though the last visit was back in 2017. Head coach Rahul Dravid noted last week, “We’ve had good memories in Colombo, but that was a different team and a long time ago.”
New Zealand is another story. India have not won a Test there since 2009, losing 2-0 in 2020 and 1-0 in 2014. “Conditions in Wellington and Hamilton can be brutally honest,” former opener Aakash Chopra said on Cricbuzz. “Even a split series would leave India chasing the Aussies at home.”
And Australia? They have started this cycle with four wins out of four and still have six home Tests against Bangladesh and New Zealand to come. If they bank most of those points, Pat Cummins’ side could arrive in India all but confirmed for another final.
South Africa’s position
Temba Bavuma’s men have three wins from four away Tests. They still have home series against Australia and England plus two Tests with Bangladesh, and an away trip to Sri Lanka. Two wins over Bangladesh would lift them to 59%, meaning they would then need just three further victories—or a handful of draws—to park themselves near the 60% mark.
Room for others
Only 17 of 71 scheduled Tests have been completed, so England, Pakistan, Sri Lanka and New Zealand remain in the conversation. Yet India’s back-to-back home losses have already eroded the cushion that allowed them to stumble early in the last cycle.
Points of concern
• Middle-order returns: only Virat Kohli averaged above 35 in the South Africa series.
• Over-rate penalties: India dropped two points in Cape Town; a repeat could be fatal.
• Travelling seamers: the lack of a consistent fourth fast bowler hurt on slower surfaces.
Silver lining?
India still control their fate. Win three of four Tests on the road and beat Australia 4-1 at home and they sail past 60%. Easier typed than done, yes, but not impossible. “We’ve put our backs to the wall, but that sometimes brings the best out of this group,” Rohit Sharma told host broadcaster Star Sports.
A fair summary, then: qualification remains in their own hands, yet the margin for error has shrunk to something close to zero.
