Smriti Mandhana did not bother with complicated maths. Beat Australia on Sunday and India qualify; lose and the bags are packed. Simple as that. “A very important match for us, a must-win for us to go through,” she said on Saturday afternoon.
India’s path to this point has been bumpy. They scraped past Bangladesh, fielded like a side that had never practised together, and were soundly beaten by South Africa earlier in the week. Four group games, four different line-ups – hardly the picture of settled planning.
Australia, by contrast, have done what Australia usually do at ICC events: win big and win early. Victories by 113 runs, 98 runs, nine wickets and 65 runs have come even with Phoebe Litchfield and Ash Gardner missing time through niggles. Their net run-rate is out of sight; their momentum is frightening.
Yet Mandhana believes the distance between the two teams is nothing like it once was. She points to February’s series in Australia, when India pinched it 2-1, the decider settled in Adelaide thanks largely to her own 82 from 55 balls. “Yeah, we did well in the T20 format in Australia. We’ll take a lot of confidence from that,” she said.
“We’ve all spoken a lot about how we really want to play the aggressive brand of cricket and that’s something which we’ll all look to do tomorrow.”
The opener sees several reasons for optimism. Domestic crossover – Indians in the WBBL and Australians in the WPL (Women’s Premier League) – has blurred boundaries once considered unbridgeable. “Again, I feel the gap has definitely narrowed with a few of our players playing the Big Bash, them playing the WPL, their experiences being shared,” she explained. “And I feel the kind of cricket the Indian team has played in the last four-five years… that gap has narrowed down.”
Numbers back her up. Since January 2024 the head-to-head in women’s T20Is is 4-3 in Australia’s favour, a scoreline miles closer than the one-sided ledger of the previous decade. India’s bowlers have also improved their death-overs returns, conceding an average of 8.4 an over after the 16th in that period, down from 10.2.
Still, there are issues. Shafali Verma’s strike-rate sits below 110 for the tournament; Harmanpreet Kaur has managed 35 runs in three innings. The wicket-keeping slot remains unsettled. Coach strength Amol Muzumdar admitted earlier in the week that chopping and changing was “not ideal” but argued that conditions and match-ups demanded flexibility.
Australia’s camp, relaxed and typically understated, know a slip-up matters only for pride. Captain Alyssa Healy declined to crow but observed: “We’re executing pretty well at the moment, but India are always dangerous. They’ve beaten us recently, so nobody’s taking anything for granted.”
Sunday’s pitch is expected to be slow and slightly tacky, bringing spinners into play. That should suit Deepti Sharma, whose economy rate has been a miserly 4.7, and the young leg-spinner Shreyanka Patil, impressive in brief bursts. It will also test India’s batters, who have occasionally stalled in the middle overs when the ball grips.
Mandhana, India’s leading run-scorer this World Cup, sounds prepared for exactly that. “We’ll go out there, work hard, work really hard, and try to put up the best we can,” she said. “It’s an important match and I’m sure everyone is aware of that. But having said that, we have done well against them and we’ll take that confidence ahead.”
There is no bravado in her words, just a quiet acceptance of reality. The gulf is smaller, perhaps, but to cross it India must play close to perfect cricket for 40 overs. If they do, the semi-finals beckon; if not, another chapter in Australia’s long book of tournament dominance is likely to be written.
