Pat Cummins is yet to resume bowling but those picking the Australia squad believe he will still “play a major part” in this summer’s Ashes. The captain has a little under five weeks to prove his fitness after the lower-back stress fracture that ruled him out of the recent India tour.
Chair of selectors George Bailey, speaking in Perth on Saturday, sounded cautiously encouraged by Cummins’ progress while confirming that Steven Smith will stand in as captain if needed.
“I actually have no further update on that from when I think the last time Pat spoke,” Bailey told reporters. “It’s progressing. He’s building up. He’s optimistic about it. I think actually the more he’s done over the last few days, the more optimistic he’s become but I categorically don’t know if he’s bowled a ball.
“We know time is getting short and there’s permutations around that, not just around the back, but other factors as well. It’s positive. [We’re] really confident that he’s going to play a major part. Hopefully it’s the first Test. If not, then we’ll pick it up.”
No bowling yet, but signs described as ‘positive’
Coach Andrew McDonald had indicated a decision might come on Friday; instead, Cummins himself admitted on Monday he was “less likely than likely” to be ready for the Perth opener and would require at least four weeks of overs to be considered. While that window remains tight, Bailey insisted the medical staff are happy with the skipper’s current workload.
Smith back from New York, ready for Shield tune-up
Should Cummins fail to make it, Smith – fresh from a brief stay in New York – is pencilled in to lead. The 35-year-old will play New South Wales’ next two Sheffield Shield fixtures, offering selectors another look at both his own form and the state of the domestic pitches. Mitchell Starc has already said that Smith “has been a great sounding board” for Cummins during the rehabilitation process, and that relationship is likely to continue whether or not the hand-over is required.
Green expected to bowl and bat in first Test
Cameron Green, withdrawn from the India one-day series after experiencing side soreness, remains on course for the Ashes. Scans showed no tear and Bailey suggested a conservative approach was simply prudent management.
“It is minor and it’s conservative, and I think this decision probably ensures that we do have enough time to make sure,” Bailey said. “We put so much time and energy into building out the plan for him to be available for the first Test as an allrounder. So for the sake of, he was only going to play the first two ODIs anyway, the way he swings the cricket bat in white-ball cricket, even if it just sets him back for 24 more hours, we just made the decision to approach this more conservative.”
Green is scheduled for two more Shield matches, giving him ample overs and time at the crease. The selectors will reassess batting positions – specifically how Green and Smith slot into the order – once Cummins’ status is clearer.
Webster, Labuschagne pushing cases
Bailey also confirmed that Beau Webster, who rolled an ankle in Tasmania’s opening Shield round, will be “a lock” for the Test squad provided he comes through next week’s fitness tests. Meanwhile, Marnus Labuschagne’s early-season form – two hundreds in three Shield innings – drew approval from Bailey, who value-added that “runs on the board are always the strongest argument”.
Analysis: ticking clocks and contingency plans
In practical terms Australia’s first-choice XI picks itself when everyone is fit, yet Cummins’ tight timeline forces the panel to sketch several scenarios. If he misses Perth, Starc, Josh Hazlewood and Nathan Lyon are automatic picks, with Scott Boland, Michael Neser and the recalled Lance Morris vying for the final seam berth. Smith’s leadership would be familiar, and Green’s availability would maintain the side’s balance by offering a fourth quick without compromising the batting.
Should Cummins play, attention shifts to his overs limit and whether workload management influences field placements or follow-on decisions. Either way, the selectors appear determined to give him until the last sensible moment, cognisant that a half-fit Cummins could prove more effective than a fully fit replacement once the Ashes pressure rises.
For now, supporters can expect updates in increments: bowling loads first, then an intra-squad practice match, then – perhaps – confirmation of Australia’s captain taking the new ball in Perth. The optimism is real, but the clock is ticking.
