Graeme Smith rarely deals in wild predictions, yet the former South Africa captain and current SA20 commissioner thinks men’s cricket will look very different once the present Future Tours Programme (FTP) ends in 2027. Speaking at a low-key SA20 promotion in Mumbai on Wednesday, Smith sketched out a future where a handful of leading franchise leagues dominate clear windows and bilateral cricket fights for relevance.
“I’m not saying the other leagues will go away, but there’ll certainly be a tier-one of sort of franchise leagues in different windows, so maybe four to five, probably a club World Cup coming,” he said. The comment was delivered casually, but it landed firmly. At the moment the global calendar already creaks under the weight of overlapping tournaments: SA20, the UAE’s ILT20 and Australia’s Big Bash all run in January-February, while India’s IPL claims April-May and the Caribbean Premier League sits in late August.
Smith’s hunch is that, once the next ICC media-rights cycle is negotiated, boards will need to decide which cricket they truly value. “I think bilateral cricket is hard. I think when top nations play each other, it gets a lot of interest. Even with the ICC, they have an event a year, but I think the interesting thing to watch is going to be post-2027 FTP cycle when the new cycle kicks in and all the new rights deals get done.”
For viewers, the problem is obvious enough: too many short series, not enough context. “I think bilateral cricket, if anything, outside of the top teams playing each other, is lacking a little bit of context at the moment with four games here, two games there,” Smith continued. One-off fixtures might satisfy television contracts but they rarely stir public imagination for long. National pride still matters, he admitted, yet the structures around it feel increasingly flimsy.
South Africa’s own priorities are clear. Smith, who oversees SA20 on behalf of Cricket South Africa (CSA) and the league’s private investors, says everything feeds into the men’s 2027 ODI World Cup, which South Africa will co-host with Zimbabwe and Namibia. That tournament sits in October-November, giving CSA two years to finalise upgrades to grounds, floodlights and playing surfaces.
“I think for us it’s also where South African cricket is,” he said, acknowledging the domestic game’s financial and competitive challenges. “With the 2027 World Cup now, there’s been big investment into stadium infrastructure, lights, the quality of pitches. So we’ve seen that really being developed over the last six months into the year. I think in all the stadiums now you’ll see new lights in the run-up to the 2027 World Cup.”
As for SA20 itself, expansion remains a talking point rather than an immediate plan. The league is three seasons old, features six teams – all backed by IPL owners – and has managed respectable crowds while avoiding the worst scheduling clashes with South Africa’s men’s national side. Yet Smith and his colleagues are wary of diluting playing standards or stretching an already thin talent pool.
“Post-season five [of SA20] is where we will look to grow. That has always been the case,” he confirmed. “I think for us there’s a number of elements when you look to grow. Where do you grow? Do you grow in South Africa? Do you grow in Africa? And then also you want to build up your player base. I think one thing that SA20 has got right is that the six teams have been equally competitive. Probably the amount of South African local players has been at a good standard. And if you introduce a new team then you’ve got to look at another 20 to 26 South Afric…” Smith’s sentence drifted, as though he realised the mathematics of player depth before finishing the thought.
The numbers underpin the caution. Roughly 80 domestic players currently feature each season; adding two new sides would push that figure towards 120. Coaches already complain privately that the step up from provincial cricket to SA20 is steep. CSA’s challenge is to widen the base – through talent hubs, provincial contracts and better pay – without asking broadcasters and sponsors to foot a heavier bill.
Former South Africa batter and television analyst Hashim Amla, speaking separately to SuperSport last week, sympathised with Smith’s dilemma. “The league is strong because every side can beat another on the day,” Amla noted. “Grow too quickly and you risk losing that edge.” His view echoes whispers from franchise owners, who would rather split existing revenue six ways than eight – at least until the competition secures a longer, richer television deal beyond South Africa’s borders.
There is also the question of where any new teams might be based. The six current franchises cover Johannesburg, Pretoria, Durban, Cape Town, Paarl and Gqeberha. Bloemfontein, Kimberley and East London offer smaller stadia and limited corporate muscle, while taking the product into the wider African continent raises logistical and financial hurdles. For now, Smith hints that patience is the sensible option.
From an international perspective, SA20’s January window still overlaps with Australia’s BBL and the ILT20. That overlap creates inevitable player jostling. The league has attracted England’s white-ball regulars and a sprinkling of West Indians but lacks leading Australian names tied up by states and Cricket Australia contracts. Should SA20 shift forward or back? Smith insists the slot works for South Africa’s climate, school holidays and local broadcast schedules. Changing it, he says, would merely clash with another set of fixtures.
All of which leads back to 2027. If ICC events, franchise windows and bilateral series are to coexist, the collective timetable must breathe. One idea doing the rounds involves ring-fencing August-September for a short, Champions League-style club World Cup. Smith likes the concept, though he admits it is merely “ball-room chat” for now. Indian Premier League officials hold similar views, albeit with predictable nods to commercial returns.
The broader point, according to sports economist Dr. Nicola Seymour, is that money talks. “The leagues bringing guaranteed broadcast income have leverage over tours that sell poorly,” she said. “Boards will need to decide whether Test cricket and traditional bilateral series are cultural products worth subsidising, or if they let the market dictate.”
Smith, for his part, wants balance rather than a free-for-all. He still rates the prestige of South Africa v Australia at Newlands or a Boxing Day Test at Centurion. But he can also see where the revenue lies. “Our job,” he summed up near the end of the Mumbai briefing, “is to give players careers, give fans entertainment and keep the game sustainable. How we juggle those three balls after 2027 – well, that’s the puzzle.”
CSA, the ICC and franchise owners have two full seasons before that puzzle needs solving. Plenty of time on paper, though in cricket administration the years fly by. For the moment Smith has his eyes on a more immediate horizon: SA20 season four in January, and the ongoing stadium refurbishments back home. Anything beyond that, he concedes, is still outline sketching rather than final blueprint.
Whether the shift he predicts proves gentle or seismic, few insiders doubt a recalibration is coming. And when it does, South Africa hopes to be ready – stronger domestic league, modernised venues and, perhaps, a second World Cup trophy in the cabinet. It is an ambitious wish-list. Yet after listening to Smith argue his case for almost an hour, it feels more pragmatic than fanciful.
