Ben Stokes says the toss at Lord’s on Thursday “isn’t rocket science”, yet it has become a hot topic – and not only because London is braced for 30-degree heat. Speaking to reporters two days out from the third Test, the England captain stressed, again, that he is not wedded to bowling first.
“We are not stuck in our ways about it,” Stokes said. “I want to make that clear.”
Since taking the job, he has won 12 tosses and bowled first in 10 of them at home, including both matches in this series. The numbers look stark, though the outcomes are mixed: England have won seven of those ten games but slipped badly at Edgbaston, losing by 336 runs after choosing to field. By contrast, the decision worked a treat at Headingley, where a fourth-innings chase of 373 revived hopes of a series victory.
Stokes accepts the pattern, yet argues it is mostly about reading skies rather than grand strategy. “I’m not the Met Office, so I can’t tell what’s going to happen after 10.30 am,” he smiled. Overhead conditions, he says, remain the starting point. If the ball is likely to hoop, he backs his seamers; if not, batting first quickly becomes attractive.
The forecast this week is uncomplicated: sun, more sun, and very little cloud. “Lord’s is meant to be really hot this week,” Stokes noted. “If that is the case and the sun is out, blazing, I think whoever wins the toss will end up doing the same thing.”
England’s chase-friendly record – 11 wins in 18 fourth-innings efforts, six of them over 250 – fuels the outside perception that they fancy a target. Stokes does not deny the confidence, only the idea it dictates his calls. “Because we’ve had good success at chasing down totals in the fourth innings, it doesn’t mean that’s our preference… It’s not a tactic of ours to consistently bowl, if we win the toss,” he said. Later he added: “There’s nothing whatsoever to say we are stuck in our ways, but because we are very confident in our ability… if it is slightly bowler-friendly conditions in the morning, why we might mentally look to do that.”
Toss worries, he insists, will occupy “five minutes tops” on match morning. “You can go back and forth if you’re thinking about it 14 hours before the toss the night before,” he said. “When I get the whites out with the blazer on, I look up to the sky more than anything. It’s not rocket science.”
Attention now shifts to the surface. Head coach Brendon McCullum asked ground staff after Edgbaston for “plenty of life” – pace, bounce, and movement. Stokes is not expecting a radical departure from the norm. “Lord’s generally plays the same way,” he observed. “There’s always a bit in it on day one to two; then if any…” His sentence tailed off, perhaps deliberately, perhaps proof that even captains start to hedge when the wicket is still under covers.
Whichever way the coin lands, England’s approach looks settled: absorb risk, strike when the moment comes. The only non-negotiable, given the searing temperatures, might be keeping bowlers fresh for that final push – whether they’re charging in on the first afternoon or stalking wickets late on day five.
Either way, the captain has left himself room. After all, as he reminded everyone, “We are not stuck in our ways.”
